The Latest Gaza Ceasefire Proposal Will Not Happen

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently arrived in Israel once again. According to official reports, he is there for two principal reasons.

One is to discuss with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a slightly revised “bridging” proposal for a ceasefire with Hamas. The other is to plan together at a high level what may happen if Iran follows through on its planned counterattack on Israel after Mossad’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.

Blinken is also there to attempt to reassure Netanyahu of the ongoing support of the Untied States, especially after Vice-President Kamala Harris said publicly during Netanyahu’s recent visit to the U.S. that a ceasefire is mandatory, in direct defiance to statements to the opposite effect by Netanyahu just before that.

Joe Biden did its best to arm Blinken with some proof of that support last week. On April 12 he signed off on yet another $20 billion of military aid to Israel, bundled together quickly after Netanyahu’s plea to Congress for more bombs, jets, and other armaments to continue his ongoing genocide in Gaza.

The $20 billion package includes 50 more F-15 fighter jets, tactical armored vehicles for use on the ground especially in Gaza, 120 mm tank ammunition, Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs), and powerful explosive mortar shell. Because of the nature of what is being provided, the most expensive of these supplies could take years to deliver to Israel, with the fighter jets having the longest lead time. But with Israel having transformed under the current Netanyahu administration into the most cross-border warmongering military entity in the Middle East, all on the grounds that it is just defending itself, the steady flow of some of the most powerful weapons the U.S. manufactures should be reassuring to Netanyahu, as he continues to promote ongoing war as his primary means of keeping the peace in Israel itself.

At the time the weapons procurement was approved, the U.S. State Department issued a statement of its own which dovetails with Netanyahu’s militant proclamations.

“The United States is committed to the security of Israel, and it is vital to U.S. national interests to assist Israel to develop and maintain a strong and ready self-defense capability,” the statement read. “This proposed sale is consistent with those objectives,” the State Department said in a release on the sale.”

As required by law, Congress was notified of this sale by the White House before it was announced. Even for contracts this large, since the line items were structured to fall mostly below legal limits requiring Congressional action to authorize their sale, the decision on whether to provide the items and even what to sell was all carried out solely by the White House, the U.S. National Security Council, and the State Department.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant thanked the U.S. also immediately for its latest weapons agreement. In a post he made on the social media platform X, he expressed his appreciation for supporting Israel’s security and assisting the country in retaining “its qualitative military edge in the region".

The latest ceasefire proposal on the table is according to the Israeli prime minister’s office, essentially the same ceasefire proposal offered up by Joe Biden as of the end of May, but with a few significant alterations.

Like the original proposal, the ceasefire comes in three phases.

Phase one has extensive prisoner exchanges between Hamas and Israel, with Hamas yielding many of the Israeli prisoners it has in custody in Gaza and Israel and a “full and complete” ceasefire by both sides taking place. Israeli Defense Forces would be removed from “all populated areas” in Gaza, according to the original plan. Palestinians displaced by the war would be given the opportunity to return to where their homes had been if they wished, though the probability is high that now almost three months later the IDF may have destroyed them anyway. Phase one also allows for far more aid trucks to enter the region.

A very important part of phase one also includes laying out how negotiations to end the war would go forward in phase two. According to the plan at the time, if working out how to hold those negotiations takes longer than the six weeks for phase one, the first phase of the plan would be extended.

Phase two is another six-week phase. Fighting would remain on hold from both sides. The main difference between this and the first period would be that Hamas and the Israelis would use this time to put together a long-term plan for peace and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. The Israeli Defense Forces still in Gaza would be moved closer to the region’s borders with Israel.

During phase three, all prisoners still not exchanged as well as the remains of those who died in custody would be returned to the opposing side. The long-term peace plan would go into effect as well. This phase also begins the reconstruction of Gaza.

Under the original end of May proposal, Israel would have removed all its troops from Gaza early in the third phase. It would also allow for the region to be governed by as a minimum a joint-governance force where the Palestinian people would have a principal role in governing Gaza. Though Netanyahu and all of Israel’s ministry dodge responding to questions on this, both those criteria have been dropped from what Israel is willing to sign up to at this time.

Though exact details of the final proposal have not been released, it is also believed the ceasefire would not continue indefinitely if there was no agreement on how to conduct negotiations to end the war by the end of the six weeks proposed for phase one.

Analysts have desperately sought some hopeful signs for the ceasefire discussions which are currently ongoing in Doha, Qatar. A big negative was Hamas’s understandable refusal to show up for the talks in person this time, immediately following the assassinations of the political head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, and of several key Hamas military lieutenants who were present at authorized refugee sites in Khan Younis and Al-Mawasi. Hamas justified their withdrawal from being physically present at the talks on the grounds that if Israel was genuinely serious about reaching agreement on a ceasefire it would not have had its Mossad covert forces murder Haniyeh on foreign soil.

Israel once again explained away that and a multitude of other cross-border assassinations as part of their “right to defend” themselves.

Shortly after he landed in Israel, Blinken called out the critical importance of this particular time in getting the current ceasefire deal signed.

“This is a decisive moment, probably the best, maybe the last, opportunity to get the hostages home, to get a ceasefire and to put everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security,” he told reporters.

Then he took it to a broader point, as he is highly conscious that Iran could begin a counterstrike at Israel at any time.

“It’s also time to make sure that no one takes any steps that could derail this process,” Blinken continued in his comments to reporters. “And so we’re working to make sure that there is no escalation, that there are no provocations, that there are no actions that in any way move us away from getting this deal over the line, or for that matter, escalate the conflict to other places and to greater intensity.”

After discussions with Netanyahu yesterday in Israel, Blinken said the prime minister was now in favor of the ceasefire proposal, as amended. He once again pointed a finger at Hamas as the party who is now standing in the way of a settlement.

“In a very constructive meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu today, he confirmed to me that Israel supports the bridging [ceasefire] proposal,” Blinken told reporters late yesterday. “The next important step is for Hamas to say yes.”

Blinken’s words were backed up a short while afterwards by a statement released directly by Netanyahu’s office in support of at least part of the current American ceasefire proposal.

“The prime minister reiterated Israel’s commitment to the current American proposal on the release of our hostages, which takes into account Israel’s security needs, which he strongly insists on,” the statement read.

Even from that short announcement alone, despite Blinken’s assertion that Israel is fully behind the proposal, Netanyahu is clearly saying yes only about getting Israeli hostages back. As of this moment, there is no official support from Israel for the full framework of even the slightly amended version of the ceasefire plan which was put forth at the end of May.

Further, based on Netanyahu’s continued insistence that he would never agree to end the war until “total victory” against Hamas is achieved, no country other than the U.S. seems to be taking Netanyahu’s statement as a promise to honor any ceasefire plan.

On Hamas’s end, its new political head Yahya Sinwar, the individual who had been previously responsible for all Hamas military activities in Gaza, has said he is tracking the talks going on in Doha via messaging relayed back to him from representatives of Egypt and Qatar who are present at the table.

On the evening of August 18, Hamas released a statement about the current amended proposal that it was twisted to “respond to Netanyahu’s conditions” rather than something which would make it easier for Hamas to agree to the terms.

It is also believed Hamas is still standing by its previous position that the ceasefire proposal must include complete removal of the IDF from Gaza and allow for Palestinian governance of Gaza when the war is concluded.

It is also understood Hamas’ Sinwar also believes Netanyahu must step down as a condition of the peace, as he said in comments released last week. While Sinwar knows that would never be agreed upon by Israel, he made the comment as a recognition that Netanyahu’s vow to proceed with the war, until at least a state of near-complete genocide in Gaza has been achieved, means even if Israel signed off on a ceasefire it would use the slightest provocation to justify restarting its all-out-war on a moment’s notice.

Further evidence of Israel’s insincerity in the negotiations comes from the last few weeks being some of the bloodiest ever during Israel’s now ten-month long war against the Palestinian people in Gaza.

According to the United Nations Relief Works Agency which supports aid for Palestinians principally in Gaza and the West Bank, the Israeli Defense Forces “strikes are now relentless” where no Palestinian civilian, medical professional, outside aid service, or journalist is safe.

The constant barrage of mass murders by Israel, carried out claiming every time that some Hamas operative was hiding amidst the carnage of dozens of ordinary Palestinians killed, and with new evacuation orders happening multiple times a day in Israel, has pushed the entire remaining population of Gaza into just 10% of the original Israeli-occupied Gaza territory. Shelter is mostly nonexistent unless one takes refuge among the crumbling concrete of partially blasted-out apartments, schools, hospitals, or offices.

According to the latest records verified by the Gaza Health Ministry and other independent sources, as of yesterday 40,139 Palestinians were killed by Israel since this phase of the war began on October 7, 2023. Another 92.743 were wounded during the IDF assaults. In contrast, it is estimated at most 1,139 people were killed during the October 7 raid, with those numbers being questioned more and more as to how many of them were in fact shot by Israeli Apache helicopters and other troops, rather than by Hamas.