Biden Discloses New 3-Phase Gaza Ceasefire Plan Similar to Ones Previously Rejected by Israel

Biden came to the podium at the White House yesterday to announce terms for a combination ceasefire and path to end the war in Gaza yesterday.

As outlined in his remarks, the first phase of the plan would mandate suspension of all military action in Gaza, a limited release of hostages, and some withdrawal of Israeli Defense Forces.

This initial period would be a temporary ceasefire only, just as in many past proposals. It would include, according to Biden:

• A “full and complete” ceasefire by both Israel and Hamas.
• The "release of a number of hostages including women, the elderly, the wounded in exchange for release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners”.
• The removal of Israel’s military from “all populated areas” in Gaza. That apparently would include Rafah, where currently Israel is rolling in more tanks and deploying more troops daily, as it steps up the ground offensive which Biden had claimed in the past was his “red line” after which he would cut back on weapons shipments to Israel.
• Allowance for Palestinians who had been displaced by the war to freely return to their original homes if they wish.
• The opening up of major border checkpoints into Israel to allow humanitarian aid on “600 trucks [to be] carried into Gaza every single day.”

"With a ceasefire,” Biden explained, “that aid could be safely and effectively distributed to all who need it. Hundreds of thousands of temporary shelters, including housing units could be delivered by the international community," Biden added, saying the first phase could begin immediately after a deal is reached.”

This first phase of the ceasefire would also include setting forth a formal plan for discussions to reach agreement on how to bring an end of the war, he continued.

The duration of the first phase would continue beyond the 60 days as long as both sides had delivered on their parts of the deal so far and had not violated any of the terms.

Phase two of the plan, Biden went on, would continue the ceasefire and be focused in negotiating the terms for a permanent end of the war.

Phase three would be the implementation of what was agreed on in phase two. It will include a plan to release all remaining hostages and the remains of dead prisoners on both sides. It will also include beginning the reconstruction of Gaza, to replace infrastructure, homes, hospitals, and schools. The reconstruction plan will, per the remarks made yesterday, enable those Palestinians in Gaza, the Arab world, and other countries outside the region to participate in that rebuilding in a “manner that does not allow Hamas to rearm”.

As for the substantial missing detail to the plan, Biden admitted that “I’ll be straight with you. There are a number of details in negotiations to move from phase one to phase two.”

“But the proposal says that if the negotiations take longer than [the] six weeks from phase one, the ceasefire will still continue as long as negotiations will continue,” he added.

Biden also hedged on exactly where this proposal came from and the chances of it being accepted even by Israel.

While he said about the plan that “Israel has now offered” the terms he had outlined, he followed up that statement with that he “urged the leadership in Israel to stand behind this deal.”

“I know there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely … even in the government coalition,” Biden went on. “And they’ve made it clear they want to occupy Gaza. They want to keep fighting for years.” 

Those words seemed carefully chosen to suggest that it was others besides Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that might block the plan. But this ignores past comments from Netanyahu himself being against any proposal which suggests the war would end before “total victory” is achieved. It also ignores an official policy statement made on May 29 by Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi that the government expects the war in Gaza to run in full force through the end of 2024.

Neither Netanyahu’s office nor the prime minister had much of a chance to respond to anything Biden said yesterday to help clarify matters. The president spoke on the Jewish shabbat, a day of the week on which virtually no communications would be made of any kind, on any subject, even with Biden making the comments.

Despite that, the Israeli government did issue a statement which was probably written in advance. That could explain its deliberate vagueness in addressing any of the specifics made at the White House.

“The government of Israel is united in its desire to return the hostages as soon as possible and is working to achieve this goal,” the statement read. “The prime minister authorized the negotiating team to present a proposal to that end, which would also enable Israel to continue the war until all its objectives are achieved, including the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities.”

Besides any reference to details of the plan, in the next line Netanyahu’s office seemed to be attempting to provide plausible deniability for anything Biden might say about the plan.

“The actual proposal put forward by Israel, including the conditional transition from one phase to the next, allows Israel to uphold these principles,” the Israel government statement went on.

Biden stepped down from the podium after making his remarks without responding to any detailed questions about what he had just said.

Even with these statements which seem to be enabling Netanyahu to ignore publicly most of what Biden just said about the proposal, a senior official representing the White House attempted to frame what Biden laid out in the most positive light possible.

“It is a very forward-leaning offer and I think the reason the Israelis are able to make this offer is because of some of the success they’ve had in degrading Hamas military capacity,” the official explained. “I don’t think this offer would have been possible three months ago. This has been a difficult painstaking negotiation.”

Hamas issued a short statement after Biden spoke on the social media channel Telegram yesterday indicating support for the general tone of what he had said. Though the detailed proposal had not made it them yet, it appears, the Hamas leadership supported the president’s push for “a permanent ceasefire, withdrawal of [Israeli] occupation forces from the Gaza Strip, reconstruction.

While Biden’s description of what it alleges is Israel’s plan for a ceasefire may seem hopeful, the problem with it --- according to many analysts – is the plan comes across as too similar to every other proposal which Israel has eventually disavowed or ignored. Add to that the comments Biden made about strong disagreements by those within Israel’s government who would reject any end to the fighting, to the point that they might withdraw from supporting Netanyahu’s fragile Likud Party coalition if such a deal were adopted, and this comes across as a likely “dead on arrival” proposal.